COVID-19 Data Analysis

Regions

FIRST ENTRY DATE: 2020-02-24 18:00:00
LAST  ENTRY DATE: 2020-08-30 17:00:00
COVERAGE: 187 days
CURRENT DATE IS: 2020-08-31 15:33:25

Rt bayesian

Italy regions $R_t$ (effective reproduction number in time $t$) calculated with Bayesian approach (Bettencourt & Ribeiro 2008 and Kevin Systrom 2020).

(read here for details)

ML High_50 Low_50
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo 1.21 1.63 0.75
Basilicata 1.08 1.75 0.42
Calabria 0.94 1.42 0.44
Campania 1.41 1.65 1.17
Emilia-Romagna 1.31 1.56 1.06
Friuli Venezia Giulia 1.12 1.53 0.68
Lazio 1.07 1.30 0.84
Liguria 1.30 1.65 0.94
Lombardia 1.27 1.47 1.06
Marche 0.87 1.31 0.42
Molise 0.60 1.46 0.21
P.A. Bolzano 0.92 1.38 0.44
P.A. Trento 1.49 2.05 0.91
Piemonte 1.34 1.64 1.04
Puglia 1.35 1.69 1.01
Sardegna 1.27 1.58 0.95
Sicilia 0.92 1.25 0.57
Toscana 1.31 1.60 1.02
Umbria 1.34 1.76 0.90
Valle d'Aosta 0.64 1.83 0.21
Veneto 1.04 1.28 0.79
ML High_50 Low_50
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo 1.270000 1.714286 0.797143
Basilicata 1.221429 1.938571 0.475714
Calabria 1.034286 1.520000 0.504286
Campania 1.621429 1.872857 1.370000
Emilia-Romagna 1.448571 1.707143 1.188571
Friuli Venezia Giulia 1.270000 1.705714 0.815714
Lazio 1.335714 1.568571 1.101429
Liguria 1.362857 1.728571 0.988571
Lombardia 1.482857 1.691429 1.267143
Marche 0.922857 1.365714 0.452857
Molise 0.591429 1.465714 0.207143
P.A. Bolzano 1.107143 1.587143 0.582857
P.A. Trento 1.400000 1.984286 0.774286
Piemonte 1.382857 1.692857 1.067143
Puglia 1.455714 1.808571 1.101429
Sardegna 1.572857 1.900000 1.244286
Sicilia 1.004286 1.341429 0.654286
Toscana 1.424286 1.725714 1.121429
Umbria 1.494286 1.947143 1.030000
Valle d'Aosta 0.622857 1.942857 0.192857
Veneto 1.202857 1.447143 0.951429

Growths

Read here for current method PDF.

deceduti

beta

mean sd hdi_0.5% hdi_99.5%
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo -1.155 280.854 -480.711 482.418
Basilicata 1.852 281.078 -478.600 485.261
Calabria -1.139 281.464 -480.330 483.357
Campania 2.689 0.585 1.252 4.498
Emilia-Romagna -0.280 0.294 -1.116 0.520
Friuli Venezia Giulia 0.204 280.946 -477.976 486.227
Lazio 0.358 0.152 -0.065 0.775
Liguria -3.564 2.083 -9.401 -0.311
Lombardia -0.985 0.354 -2.005 -0.002
Marche 0.659 281.199 -484.590 479.412
Molise -0.056 280.850 -485.536 478.186
P.A. Bolzano -1.036 282.117 -480.740 482.304
P.A. Trento -0.719 280.233 -486.593 476.276
Piemonte -1.318 0.291 -2.145 -0.533
Puglia -0.678 0.887 -3.424 1.820
Sardegna 2.000 280.856 -486.369 477.380
Sicilia -271.569 124.416 -486.433 -57.945
Toscana 1.218 0.646 -0.474 3.121
Umbria -1.048 281.492 -485.643 478.505
Valle d'Aosta -2.514 281.728 -477.356 486.642
Veneto 1.273 0.289 0.468 2.088

fitted

totale_casi

beta

mean sd hdi_0.5% hdi_99.5%
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo 0.951 0.152 0.533 1.381
Basilicata 1.176 0.134 0.813 1.555
Calabria 0.411 0.087 0.174 0.653
Campania 1.731 0.063 1.562 1.909
Emilia-Romagna 1.455 0.060 1.292 1.622
Friuli Venezia Giulia 0.557 0.161 0.090 0.984
Lazio 0.862 0.129 0.506 1.214
Liguria 0.713 0.077 0.506 0.928
Lombardia 1.503 0.083 1.271 1.731
Marche 1.217 0.227 0.605 1.866
Molise -1.200 0.274 -1.927 -0.413
P.A. Bolzano 0.251 0.218 -0.347 0.852
P.A. Trento 2.559 0.175 2.077 3.048
Piemonte 1.439 0.052 1.298 1.589
Puglia 1.419 0.057 1.265 1.573
Sardegna 1.191 0.166 0.745 1.652
Sicilia 0.488 0.110 0.191 0.793
Toscana 1.244 0.096 0.979 1.505
Umbria 0.901 0.151 0.481 1.332
Valle d'Aosta 2.103 0.463 0.820 3.428
Veneto 0.683 0.097 0.418 0.955

fitted

Summary

Growths summary:

deceduti totale_casi
growth beta alpha growth beta alpha
Abruzzo None 0 0 exp 0.95 13.77
Basilicata None 0 0 exp 1.18 2.92
Calabria None 0 0 exp 0.41 7.31
Campania exp 2.69 0.38 exp 1.73 102.62
Emilia-Romagna lin -0.28 0.46 exp 1.46 96.92
Friuli Venezia Giulia None 0 0 exp 0.56 18.54
Lazio lin 0.36 0.62 exp 0.86 135.38
Liguria dec -3.56 0.15 exp 0.71 30.46
Lombardia dec -0.98 1.54 exp 1.50 178.85
Marche None 0 0 exp 1.22 14.46
Molise None 0 0 dec -1.20 2.85
P.A. Bolzano None 0 0 lin 0.25 9.38
P.A. Trento None 0 0 exp 2.56 6.23
Piemonte dec -1.32 0.46 exp 1.44 53.85
Puglia lin -0.68 0.15 exp 1.42 36.54
Sardegna None 0 0 exp 1.19 46.08
Sicilia dec -271.57 0.08 exp 0.49 37.77
Toscana lin 1.22 0.23 exp 1.24 65.69
Umbria None 0 0 exp 0.90 15.77
Valle d'Aosta None 0 0 exp 2.10 1.00
Veneto exp 1.27 1.85 exp 0.68 118.85
ERR None dec lin exp
deaths 0 11 4 4 2
cases 0 0 1 1 19

For cumulative total cases

  • 19 regions 90.48% are likely exponentially growing
  • 1 regions 4.76% are likely almost linearly growing
  • 1 regions 4.76% are likely exponentially decaying
  • 0 regions 0.00% are likely constant

For cumulative total deaths:

  • 2 regions 9.52% are likely exponentially growing
  • 4 regions 19.05% are likely almost linearly growing
  • 4 regions 19.05% are likely exponentially decaying
  • 11 regions 52.38% are likely constant

In 90% regions, cases are growing exponetially and in 5% the situation is likely solved or about to resolution (no growth or exponential decay).

On the other hand, in 71% regions deaths are not growing or decaying and 10% are showing an exponential growth of deaths.

Linearly growing regions (5% for cases and 19% for deaths) situation is not severe but likely not currently resolving.

Overview

Cases

Deaths

Recovered

Positive

Letality Rate

!!! PLEASE NOTE !!!

These rates are only useful for SIRD epidemiological model (read here for details) not to define COVID-19 actual rates.

Recovery rate

Hospitalized

© 2020 Max Pierini. Thanks to Sandra Mazzoli & Alessio Pamovio

Exported from italy/regions-overview.ipynb committed by Max Pierini on Mon Aug 31 15:38:56 2020 revision 3, 4b0de70