FIRST ENTRY DATE: 2020-02-24 18:00:00 LAST ENTRY DATE: 2020-08-30 17:00:00 COVERAGE: 187 days CURRENT DATE IS: 2020-08-31 15:33:25
Italy regions $R_t$ (effective reproduction number in time $t$) calculated with Bayesian approach (Bettencourt & Ribeiro 2008 and Kevin Systrom 2020).
| ML | High_50 | Low_50 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| denominazione_regione | |||
| Abruzzo | 1.21 | 1.63 | 0.75 |
| Basilicata | 1.08 | 1.75 | 0.42 |
| Calabria | 0.94 | 1.42 | 0.44 |
| Campania | 1.41 | 1.65 | 1.17 |
| Emilia-Romagna | 1.31 | 1.56 | 1.06 |
| Friuli Venezia Giulia | 1.12 | 1.53 | 0.68 |
| Lazio | 1.07 | 1.30 | 0.84 |
| Liguria | 1.30 | 1.65 | 0.94 |
| Lombardia | 1.27 | 1.47 | 1.06 |
| Marche | 0.87 | 1.31 | 0.42 |
| Molise | 0.60 | 1.46 | 0.21 |
| P.A. Bolzano | 0.92 | 1.38 | 0.44 |
| P.A. Trento | 1.49 | 2.05 | 0.91 |
| Piemonte | 1.34 | 1.64 | 1.04 |
| Puglia | 1.35 | 1.69 | 1.01 |
| Sardegna | 1.27 | 1.58 | 0.95 |
| Sicilia | 0.92 | 1.25 | 0.57 |
| Toscana | 1.31 | 1.60 | 1.02 |
| Umbria | 1.34 | 1.76 | 0.90 |
| Valle d'Aosta | 0.64 | 1.83 | 0.21 |
| Veneto | 1.04 | 1.28 | 0.79 |
| ML | High_50 | Low_50 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| denominazione_regione | |||
| Abruzzo | 1.270000 | 1.714286 | 0.797143 |
| Basilicata | 1.221429 | 1.938571 | 0.475714 |
| Calabria | 1.034286 | 1.520000 | 0.504286 |
| Campania | 1.621429 | 1.872857 | 1.370000 |
| Emilia-Romagna | 1.448571 | 1.707143 | 1.188571 |
| Friuli Venezia Giulia | 1.270000 | 1.705714 | 0.815714 |
| Lazio | 1.335714 | 1.568571 | 1.101429 |
| Liguria | 1.362857 | 1.728571 | 0.988571 |
| Lombardia | 1.482857 | 1.691429 | 1.267143 |
| Marche | 0.922857 | 1.365714 | 0.452857 |
| Molise | 0.591429 | 1.465714 | 0.207143 |
| P.A. Bolzano | 1.107143 | 1.587143 | 0.582857 |
| P.A. Trento | 1.400000 | 1.984286 | 0.774286 |
| Piemonte | 1.382857 | 1.692857 | 1.067143 |
| Puglia | 1.455714 | 1.808571 | 1.101429 |
| Sardegna | 1.572857 | 1.900000 | 1.244286 |
| Sicilia | 1.004286 | 1.341429 | 0.654286 |
| Toscana | 1.424286 | 1.725714 | 1.121429 |
| Umbria | 1.494286 | 1.947143 | 1.030000 |
| Valle d'Aosta | 0.622857 | 1.942857 | 0.192857 |
| Veneto | 1.202857 | 1.447143 | 0.951429 |
Read here for current method PDF.
| mean | sd | hdi_0.5% | hdi_99.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| denominazione_regione | ||||
| Abruzzo | -1.155 | 280.854 | -480.711 | 482.418 |
| Basilicata | 1.852 | 281.078 | -478.600 | 485.261 |
| Calabria | -1.139 | 281.464 | -480.330 | 483.357 |
| Campania | 2.689 | 0.585 | 1.252 | 4.498 |
| Emilia-Romagna | -0.280 | 0.294 | -1.116 | 0.520 |
| Friuli Venezia Giulia | 0.204 | 280.946 | -477.976 | 486.227 |
| Lazio | 0.358 | 0.152 | -0.065 | 0.775 |
| Liguria | -3.564 | 2.083 | -9.401 | -0.311 |
| Lombardia | -0.985 | 0.354 | -2.005 | -0.002 |
| Marche | 0.659 | 281.199 | -484.590 | 479.412 |
| Molise | -0.056 | 280.850 | -485.536 | 478.186 |
| P.A. Bolzano | -1.036 | 282.117 | -480.740 | 482.304 |
| P.A. Trento | -0.719 | 280.233 | -486.593 | 476.276 |
| Piemonte | -1.318 | 0.291 | -2.145 | -0.533 |
| Puglia | -0.678 | 0.887 | -3.424 | 1.820 |
| Sardegna | 2.000 | 280.856 | -486.369 | 477.380 |
| Sicilia | -271.569 | 124.416 | -486.433 | -57.945 |
| Toscana | 1.218 | 0.646 | -0.474 | 3.121 |
| Umbria | -1.048 | 281.492 | -485.643 | 478.505 |
| Valle d'Aosta | -2.514 | 281.728 | -477.356 | 486.642 |
| Veneto | 1.273 | 0.289 | 0.468 | 2.088 |
| mean | sd | hdi_0.5% | hdi_99.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| denominazione_regione | ||||
| Abruzzo | 0.951 | 0.152 | 0.533 | 1.381 |
| Basilicata | 1.176 | 0.134 | 0.813 | 1.555 |
| Calabria | 0.411 | 0.087 | 0.174 | 0.653 |
| Campania | 1.731 | 0.063 | 1.562 | 1.909 |
| Emilia-Romagna | 1.455 | 0.060 | 1.292 | 1.622 |
| Friuli Venezia Giulia | 0.557 | 0.161 | 0.090 | 0.984 |
| Lazio | 0.862 | 0.129 | 0.506 | 1.214 |
| Liguria | 0.713 | 0.077 | 0.506 | 0.928 |
| Lombardia | 1.503 | 0.083 | 1.271 | 1.731 |
| Marche | 1.217 | 0.227 | 0.605 | 1.866 |
| Molise | -1.200 | 0.274 | -1.927 | -0.413 |
| P.A. Bolzano | 0.251 | 0.218 | -0.347 | 0.852 |
| P.A. Trento | 2.559 | 0.175 | 2.077 | 3.048 |
| Piemonte | 1.439 | 0.052 | 1.298 | 1.589 |
| Puglia | 1.419 | 0.057 | 1.265 | 1.573 |
| Sardegna | 1.191 | 0.166 | 0.745 | 1.652 |
| Sicilia | 0.488 | 0.110 | 0.191 | 0.793 |
| Toscana | 1.244 | 0.096 | 0.979 | 1.505 |
| Umbria | 0.901 | 0.151 | 0.481 | 1.332 |
| Valle d'Aosta | 2.103 | 0.463 | 0.820 | 3.428 |
| Veneto | 0.683 | 0.097 | 0.418 | 0.955 |
Growths summary:
| deceduti | totale_casi | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| growth | beta | alpha | growth | beta | alpha | |
| Abruzzo | None | 0 | 0 | exp | 0.95 | 13.77 |
| Basilicata | None | 0 | 0 | exp | 1.18 | 2.92 |
| Calabria | None | 0 | 0 | exp | 0.41 | 7.31 |
| Campania | exp | 2.69 | 0.38 | exp | 1.73 | 102.62 |
| Emilia-Romagna | lin | -0.28 | 0.46 | exp | 1.46 | 96.92 |
| Friuli Venezia Giulia | None | 0 | 0 | exp | 0.56 | 18.54 |
| Lazio | lin | 0.36 | 0.62 | exp | 0.86 | 135.38 |
| Liguria | dec | -3.56 | 0.15 | exp | 0.71 | 30.46 |
| Lombardia | dec | -0.98 | 1.54 | exp | 1.50 | 178.85 |
| Marche | None | 0 | 0 | exp | 1.22 | 14.46 |
| Molise | None | 0 | 0 | dec | -1.20 | 2.85 |
| P.A. Bolzano | None | 0 | 0 | lin | 0.25 | 9.38 |
| P.A. Trento | None | 0 | 0 | exp | 2.56 | 6.23 |
| Piemonte | dec | -1.32 | 0.46 | exp | 1.44 | 53.85 |
| Puglia | lin | -0.68 | 0.15 | exp | 1.42 | 36.54 |
| Sardegna | None | 0 | 0 | exp | 1.19 | 46.08 |
| Sicilia | dec | -271.57 | 0.08 | exp | 0.49 | 37.77 |
| Toscana | lin | 1.22 | 0.23 | exp | 1.24 | 65.69 |
| Umbria | None | 0 | 0 | exp | 0.90 | 15.77 |
| Valle d'Aosta | None | 0 | 0 | exp | 2.10 | 1.00 |
| Veneto | exp | 1.27 | 1.85 | exp | 0.68 | 118.85 |
| ERR | None | dec | lin | exp | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| deaths | 0 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| cases | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
For cumulative total cases
For cumulative total deaths:
In 90% regions, cases are growing exponetially and in 5% the situation is likely solved or about to resolution (no growth or exponential decay).
On the other hand, in 71% regions deaths are not growing or decaying and 10% are showing an exponential growth of deaths.
Linearly growing regions (5% for cases and 19% for deaths) situation is not severe but likely not currently resolving.
!!! PLEASE NOTE !!!
These rates are only useful for SIRD epidemiological model (read here for details) not to define COVID-19 actual rates.
Exported from italy/regions-overview.ipynb committed by Max Pierini on Mon Aug 31 15:38:56 2020 revision 3, 4b0de70